Death to Flying Things

On 2nd Thought....

2011-06-22T09:06:00.003-05:00

Player	TEAM	POS	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	TB	BB	SO	SB	CS	OBP	SLG	AVG
Mark Reynolds	BAL	3B	70	230	36	52	52	0	13	37	105	42	74	4	0	0.349	0.457	0.226
Alex Rodriguez	NYY	3B	67	253	47	74	74	0	13	44	128	30	56	4	1	0.374	0.506	0.292
Adrian Beltre	TEX	3B	75	290	40	76	76	0	12	53	129	17	26	0	1	0.31	0.445	0.262
Kevin Youklis	BOS	3B	68	243	45	67	67	1	11	53	123	41	59	1	0	0.393	0.506	0.276
Dan Valencia	MIN	3B	69	253	23	56	56	0	7	33	90	21	39	2	4	0.281	0.356	0.221
Evan Longoria	TB	3B	46	160	25	37	37	0	6	23	65	21	27	1	1	0.332	0.406	0.231

Mark Reynolds leads AL 3rd basemen in Home Runs, Walks and Stolen Bases. He is 3rd in On Base Percentage and Slugging. He is 4th in Runs, RBI and Total Bases. 5th in Hits and Doubles.

What's Good for the Goose is Good for the Gander

2011-06-21T09:26:00.003-05:00

Oriole pitchers are hitting .444 in interleague play.

I'd give Mark Reynolds a turn in the rotation.

Joyce to the world

2011-05-27T15:09:00.003-05:00

Matt Joyce is among the AL leaders in WAR -- virtually on par with anyone in baseball not named Jose Bautista -- and he's doing it all with one hand. Well, against pitchers of one hand, anyway. Joyce is raking righties. For the year, he is batting .397/.455/.690 against RHP. Some of this is luck, as his BABIP is .443, but Joyce has a career OPS+ of .929 vs. RHP.

Now, the question: Will Joyce ever be able to hit lefties, or should he be platoon only? In his career, he has 658 PAs vs. RHP and 84 PAs vs. LHP. His career line against southpaws is .167/.274/.264.

Joyce won't turn 27 until August, so he is just entering his prime years. If he could hit for power against lefties, which he hasn't in his limited chances so far, it would probably be worth letting him go to the plate. He certainly will not get better by sitting the bench. On the other hand, the opportunities against RHP are plentiful, so he is a valuable weapon. Maybe it's better not to mess up his head with trying to hit lefties.

When Chase Utley came up, it was thought he wouldn't be able to hit lefties. After a year or two of some struggles, he started to mash them. I guess part of it depends if you have a suitable platoon partner. Otherwise, I guess it's best to give Joyce his chances and find out.

Cruzin

2011-05-25T22:40:00.009-05:00

I was in Florida for a weekend of business during the winter, but stayed down an extra day to catch a spring training game. I saw the Cardinals and Marlins play. The Cardinals catcher for much of the game was Tony Cruz, who was destined to start the year at Triple-A. Yesterday, though, he got the call to start in the bigs. He responded by going 3-for-5. I just happened to flip on the game when he came to the plate for his first at-bat, and singled.

The following notes are from MLB.com. I took these photos with a camera I'd bought in December and was just messing around with at the spring game.

Cardinals catcher Tony Cruz went 3-for-5 vs. the Padres on Tuesday with a double and two singles in his Major League debut. He was the first Cards player with three or more hits in his debut since Terry Pendleton on July 18, 1984, and only the fifth to do it since 1919. The others: Enos Slaughter ('38), Creepy Crespi ('38) and Ernie White ('40).

Cruz was the 17th catcher since 1919 to have at least three hits in his big league debut. The two most recent occurrences before Cruz's game took place last year, when Wilson Ramos went 4-for-5 on May 2 and J.P. Arencibia was 4-for-5 on Aug. 7.

Cruz's three hits were one more than the Padres' total in their 3-2 loss to the Cardinals.

Same but different

2011-05-23T20:46:00.003-05:00

Here is the story of two pitchers, one in the AL and the other in the NL.

Entering last night, the NL pitcher was 5-2 with a 2.17 ERA. The AL pitcher was 1-5 with a 4.23 ERA.

Following were their stats in several categories, NL/AL.

K9: 4.88/4.82
BB9: 1.76/1.75
HR9: 0.41/0.88
GB%: 45.5/50.0
BABIP: .224/.312

The NL pitcher is Kyle Lohse and the AL pitcher is Jeff Francis. Looks like Lohse has been a little bit lucky and Francis has been a little unlucky. I'll be interested to see what happens moving forward.

Tribe time

2011-05-23T15:13:00.004-05:00

The Cleveland Indians show no signs of slowing down, despite Grady Sizemore and Travis Hafner -- their most productive hitters -- being injured. Asdrubal Cabrera is the only active player batting .300 (at .302) but the Tribe ranks No. 1 in the AL with a .266 team BA, thanks in part to Hafner's .345 mark. Their .761 OPS is No. 2 in the league.

Pitching wise, outside of Justin Masterson (5-2, 2.52) and Josh Tomlin (6-1, 2.41, 0.82 WHIP) the starters have been below average. The bullpen, though, has been ridiculously good outside of Chad Durbin. This is a very young staff, too. Durbin (33) is the only pitcher older than 29. Fausto Carmona, at 27, is the elder statesman among starters.

It will be interesting to see how the Indians fare the rest of the way, but they might be too young to know they're not this good. It doesn't seem like they do anything particularly well, nor do they do anything particularly poorly. That might be plenty good enough in the AL Central.

One thing is probably for sure, Tomlin is likely to tumble. He is not a high strikeout pitcher, not a high groundball pitcher, and is living off a .175 BABIP.

Ups and downs

2011-05-22T09:38:00.004-05:00

Ex-Tiger reliever Todd Jones was nicknamed Roller Coaster for his penchant for turning saves into wild rides. He would have been the ideal closer for this year's Detroiters.

The Tigers' season so far? It looks like this: Lose 2, win, lose, win, lose, win, lose 3, win 4, lose 3 of 4, win 4, lose 7, win 10 of 11, lose 5. Their longest losing streak is 7 and longest winning streak is 7. I don't know for sure, but it would seem that having a 7-game losing streak and a 7-game win streak within the season's first 45 games has got to be rare.

Perhaps even more unusual is the fact those streaks were separated by only 4 games.

It seems likely this is the way the season will go and the Tigers will end up around .500, as they are right now at 22-23.

King Cole

2011-05-19T11:53:00.003-05:00

Despite going 29-15 with a 3.22 ERA, 1.10 WHIP and 139 ERA+ in 2007 and 2008 (Oh, yeah, and winning a World Series MVP) some Phillies fans came unglued when Hamels went 10-11 with a 4.32 ERA in 2009. There were even suggestions he should be traded.

As noted here during that season, Hamels looked to be mainly a victim of bad luck as his walk, strikeout and homer rates all were on par with the previous years.

Lo and behold, Hamels went out in 2010 and posted a career-best 3.06 ERA. He was victimized by a lack of run support, finishing 12-11. Throw in his work this year, and Hamels is 17-13 with a 3.03 ERA, 1.14 WHIP and 131 ERA+ over his last 42 starts. His K rate is 9.2/9, walk rate is 2.5/9 and HR rate is 1/9.

Even still, some fans seem cool to Cole. Too bad. They're failing to recognize a heck of a pitcher. Even with his average 2009 campaign, Hamels ranks No. 13 among all MLB hurlers for WAR beginning in 2007. Those ahead of him: Halladay, Sabathia, Lincecum, Haren, Verlander, Lee, King Felix, Greinke, Beckett, Weaver, Lester, Jimenez. There are a few Cy Young winners in that group, as well as a few no-hitters.

Not bad company.

No hitters

2011-05-18T14:16:00.003-05:00

The Phillies trotted out a lineup last night with only three legit full-time big leaguers, so it's no surprise they managed only one unearned run. The lineup included Michael Martinez, Wilson Valdez and Dane Sardinha. Yikes.

But over their last 33 games, the Phillies are batting .225/.298/.342. They are averaging 3.4 runs per game during that span. Of course, they're 19-14, but this is not a recipe for success. They've turned into the team equivalent of Daniel Descalso (.217/.295/.337). They are being outhit and outslugged by Cole Hamels (.263/.368).

The weight on Chase Utley's bad knee just got heavier.

Gibson's power and speed

2011-05-17T20:39:00.004-05:00

I remembered this play, but wanted to find documentation. It sums up Gibson's abilities. Strong enough to hit a ball over the right-field roof of Tiger Stadium and fast enough to circle the bases on a 440-foot drive to center. And score even when a base-runner ahead of him was thrown out. Read about here.

Gibson finally an All Star

2011-05-17T19:38:00.004-05:00

I guess a player's big moments can make them larger in your memories. They were talking tonight on MLB Network about Kirk Gibson being the only MVP to never play in an All-Star Game as a player. (He was named to the coaching staff for this year's game.) That seemed unbelievable to me, and all the talking heads as well.

So I looked up Gibson's stats. There were many surprises.

Gibson played 17 seasons in the big leagues, but topped 132 games only 3 times. He got more than 467 PAs only 6 times. Although he broke into the bigs at the age of 22, he didn't become a regular until the age of 26. He never hit 30 HR in a season and he never drove in 100 runs. He scored 100 runs only once. He never batted .300 in a full campaign and reached that level only once in his career.

Yet, he ranked below league average in OPS+ only three times in his career. He stole 26 bases or more in six seasons. From 1984 through 1988, he batted .282/.369/.500 for an OPS+ 139 while averaging 27 HR, 86 RBI and 30 SB. He also, of course, hit two memorable World Series dingers during that span.

He was fun to watch. I can still picture him flying around the bases. He was big and fast and played with an abandon that, ultimately, not even his 6-3, 215 frame could withstand.

Running low

2011-05-16T16:19:00.002-05:00

Last year, the Phillies scored 4 runs or fewer in 51% of their games. So far this year, they've done so in 64% of their games. They continue to defy the odds, going 2-2 when scoring 2 runs, 6-4 when scoring 3 and 4-1 when scoring 4. They are 13-1 when scoring 5 or more and 10-0 when scoring 6 or more.

Running with the Pack

2011-05-16T08:20:00.003-05:00

With 39 games played, the Orioles are practically at the quarter pole of the 2011 AL East race and have the leaders in sight. I'm not convinced they are stalking the pace-setters, but this start is vastly superior to the start of the last 2 campaigns.

With a record of 19-20, the O's are just 3 games (in the loss column) behind the division leading Rays, from whom they just took 2 of 3 in Tampa Bay. The O's have scored 156 runs on the season and allowed 176. Allowing 1/2 run per game more than you score and being within 1 game of .500 is an efficient use of runs. The offense will have to step it up as this cannot continue for very long.

The offense is 11th in the AL in runs scored. Pitching is 13th (ERA). Again, efficient use of a weak offense and inconsistent pitching to be within a game of .500.

The O's are 10-11 at home and 9-9 on the road. The road record is a significant improvement over prior campaigns.

The O's are 7-9 against the AL East, 8-9 vs. AL Central and 4-2 vs AL West. No single glaring weakness. 0-4 vs the Yankees and 0-3 vs Cleveland are the bugaboos.

The O's are 16-12 vs RH pitching and 3-8 vs LH. This must change for the O's to keep pace with a .500 record, let alone keep pace in the AL East. This is a glaring weakness that AL managers will exploit by juggling rotations and/or calling up left handed minor leaguers for spot starts in order to load up lefty starters for a series with Baltimore.

So, on to Boston for 2 games and then back home. The O's catch a little break in getting Matsuzaka and Lackey in the 2 game set. Both have been hittable thus far. The O's send Tillman and Britton. Tillman vs Matsuzaka favors the Sox as Tillman pitched well in his last start and has yet to pitch well 2 starts consecutively in the AL, but perhaps the O's can outslug the Sox with Matsuzaka on the mound. Britton vs Lackey would appear to favor the O's.

Insert own joke here

2011-05-14T16:25:00.002-05:00

Kids at tomorrow's Tigers game receive a Magglio Ordonez mini bat.

Unlucky Lee

2011-05-13T16:29:00.002-05:00

Over his last 19 regular season starts, Cliff Lee is 5-8 with a 4.30 ERA.

That is the "bad" news. The good news is Lee has been a victim of nothing more than bad luck, I think. I examined his stats, particularly to see if he "throws too many strikes," as some talking heads have suggested, and found little evidence.

First, the bad luck: balls are dropping for hits this year more than usual, at around a .350 clip. His lifetime average is .297.

As for his pitching, he's got a ridiculous 11 K/9 rate, which is by far the best of his career. Yet he is in the strike zone only a little more than previous years; 57.2% compared to 56.6% in 2010 and 56.9% in 2009. (I guess it can be noted his rate is almost 10% higher than the MLB average.) Hitters are making contact at 80.8%, which is below Lee's career average of 83.4% (and makes sense giving his K rate).

It appears Lee is relying less on his fastball and more on cutters and changeups this year. Some of this might be attributed to the way pitches are classified and logged, but still it seems logical given the increase in Ks.

Bottom line, though, is he's not throwing more pitches in the strike zone and batters are making less contact. I would think these are good things. Less contact and more hits is just bad luck.

What I say?

2011-05-12T12:04:00.000-05:00

Ever since I proclaimed the Tigers' offense as suspect, they've won 8 of 9 games, scored 10 runs twice, 9 runs twice and averaged almost 7 runs per game. (They've also struck out double digits on four occasions.) Their OPS is .815 compared to .701 previously.

Some of the success can be attributed to the return of Victor Martinez, signs of life from Austin Jackson, the promotion of Scott Sizemore (who has only a 90 OPS+, but is better than Will Rhymes' 59) and the placement of Brennan Boesch No. 3 in the lineup.

Hitting in front of Miguel Cabrera seems a good spot for the free-swinging Boesch because, theoretically, he will see more fastballs. In 10 games in the three hole, he is batting .350/.378/.550 with 2 HR and 10 RBI.

Overall, though, I have a feeling this is going to be a team that runs hot and cold offensively. I guess we'll just hope the hot streaks outnumber the cold.

Hale and Hardy

2011-05-12T08:05:00.001-05:00

J.J. Hardy may not be a great shortstop, but he's playing one on TV.

The Baltimore Orioles are 6-2 in the 8 games Hardy has started at shortstop. One of the 2 losses was the game in which Hardy left after one AB to go on the DL.

In his return from the DL, he went 4-5 with a HR. The Orioles have won 2 straight from Seattle with Hardy's return, beating rookie sensation Michael Pineda and 2010 Cy Young winner Felix Hernandez.

Defensively, he has good range, deft hands and a strong arm. He has yet to commit an error.

Offensively, he's hitting .348 with an OBP of .444 and Slugging at .609.

The downside is Hardy's brittleness. He's been plagued with trips to the DL each of the last 3 seasons, counting the current season. This is, of course, the reason the Orioles were able to acquire him. Hopefully, the Chesapeake Bay humidity will soften the brittle Hardy to a robust suppleness because, in the 8 games he's been on the field, he has been the Orioles best player.

Magglio's struggles

2011-05-04T16:35:00.004-05:00

Magglio Ordonez is off to a horrible start for the Tigers, a start that is widely attributed to his surgically repaired right ankle. He is batting .169 with a .411 OPS.

Still there is some reason to hope he can turn it around. First, I guess, being healthy would help. But Maggs is making contact at a high rate and hasn't seen his strikeout rate increase, so it's not like he can't put wood on the ball.

His line drive rate is a little lower than usual, but still pretty good. The most noticeable change in his batting profile is a spike in ground balls. This is most likely the result of not being able to drive off that right foot. His GB% of 57.4 is well above his career 44.4 mark.

Maggs also might be a little unlucky. Following are BABIPs for ground balls, fly balls and line drives. The first number is the AL average; the second is Maggs.

Ground balls: .223 AL -- .100 Maggs (4-for-40)
Fly balls: .136 AL -- .000 Maggs (0-for-17)
Line drives: .718 -- .818 Maggs (9-for-11)

Maggs' BABIP overall is .191; the AL average is .285. If Maggs' stats mirrored the AL averages above, he would have about seven more hits and be batting .260.

Stark contrast

2011-05-03T14:40:00.003-05:00

After I wrote my previous post, I came across this from ESPN's Jayson Stark regarding the Tigers: "And at some point this team has too many good hitters not to score."

You can read the full story here.

Again, I respectfully disagree with Mr. Stark. As an additional point, Detroit's team BABIP is .293, which ranks No. 13 in all of MLB, and to me means as a whole the team has not be unlucky at the plate. (The Braves and Orioles are tied for worst, at .263.)

Meow

2011-05-03T11:51:00.002-05:00

"Detroit is very talented. They've got great pitchers out there and an offense that is one of the best in baseball. They are going to get some things going. It's a matter of time." -- Curtis Granderson.

That's what is called being polite, although it mirrors what often seems to be said nationally about the Tigers. I do not believe it to be true, however.

In my opinion, the Tigers right now have one legitimate major league bat in their lineup, and that obviously belongs to Miguel Cabrera. Alex Avila is swinging a hot stick right now, and appears to have potential, but it is too soon to say anything more about him. Magglio Ordonez was a prime hitter before injuries took a toll. What he is now is anyone's guess. Getting back Victor Martinez should help.

From there, Detroit's lineup looks largely like guys suited to being role players or Triple A.

Will Rhymes was sent to the minors to make room for Scott Sizemore in the hopes of upgrading production at the top of the order. But Austin Jackson is struggling and might always struggle if he cannot make contact. Brennan Boesch and Ryan Raburn might be nice hitters in small doses, but are likely to be exposed the more ABs they get -- as was the case last year for Boesch.

Brandon Inge would be an acceptable player at 3B because of his defense, which, by the way, seems to be in decline, if he was on a team with some offensive production elsewhere. That's not the case here. Jhonny Peralta looks older than 28.

Ramon Santiago, Don Kelly, Casper Wells -- not a lot to get you excited there.

As for the pitching, you have to like your chances with Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer, but Phil Coke, Brad Penny and Rick Porcello are unpredictable. And probably need offensive support to be successful. Offensive support that appears absent from here.

Over/Under

2011-04-27T10:49:00.005-05:00

Through 21 games Baltimore Orioles pitching is last in Earned Run Average in the American League. 13th in Home Runs allowed.

Offensively, the O's are last in Hits in the American League. 12th in Batting Average and 12th in Runs.

They are 7th in Fielding.

Their record stands at 9-12 and they are rightfully in last place in the AL East. However, they are only 3 1/2 games behind the division leading Yankees (4 in the loss column). 1 1/2 games (1 in the loss column) out of 2nd place in the division.

A-Jax needs to clean it up

2011-04-25T16:30:00.003-05:00

Last year, Austin Jackson lived the high life thanks to his .396 BABIP. He batted .293 and scored 103 runs despite whiffing 170 times and walking only 47 times. He finished second in ROY voting.

This season, Jackson is batting .193 with 9 runs in 22 games, primarily from the leadoff spot. He is still fanning at a high rate -- even higher than last year -- and his BABIP is .273. Plus, according to the defensive metrics at Fangraphs and baseball-reference.com, Jackson is average to below average in CF.

Last season, Jackson's line drive rate was 24.2% and this year it is 15.1%. Last year he hit only 2 infield flyballs all season; he has reached that total already. He also has a more than 8% decrease this year in infield hits, probably due in part to a flyball rate that has increased by 12%.

Jackson needs to be hitting line drives and beating out groundballs. He has shown signs of turning it around. Over his last four games he is batting .353 with a .462 BABIP. With a K rate around 30% he needs to keep that BABIP inflated to be productive.

Small ball

2011-04-24T20:07:00.003-05:00

The Phillies have taught me what small ball really is.

Great pitching.

Philadelphia entered today having scored 4 or fewer runs in 12 consecutive games. The streak continued this afternoon, as the Phils won 3-1 in SD. That makes them 9-4 in their last 13 despite limited offense.

Entering today, Philadelphia was batting .201/.273/.295 in its previous dozen games. The pitching staff posted a 2.57 ERA.

OK, the Phillies aren't exactly playing small ball because they've benefited from the long ball in several games. But it is pretty remarkable what they've done with so few runs.

Winning when scoring 4 runs or fewer is tough. Generally speaking, in recent years, scoring 4 runs gives you a little better than 50-50 chance of winning. The chances decrease with each run less. Here are the win percentages of NL teams in 2011 for scoring 4 or less (not counting shutouts because there is no chance to win):

1 run -- .097
2 runs -- .163
3 runs -- .378
4 runs -- .521

Now here are the numbers for 2008-2010:

1 run -- .082, .082, .156
2 runs -- .172, .229, .251
3 runs -- .361, .355, .387
4 runs -- .500, .535, .568

Battle of the Turds

2011-04-18T10:14:00.006-05:00

In 2010, the O's were 9 games back of the division leaders thru 14 games.

In 2011, they are only 3 games back.

In 2010, the O's needed 10 games to fashion a 7 game losing streak.

In 2011, it took 14.

In 2010, the O's sent Kevin Millwood to the mound to break the 7 game skid. He lost and the skid continued for 9 games.

In 2011, the O's send a struggling Chris Tillman to the mound to break the current 7 game skid.

In 2010, Brian Matusz beat the Oakland A's 8-3 to break the 9 game losing streak.

In 2011, Brian Matusz is on the DL.

After a euphoric first 7 games during which the O's went 6-1 and starting pitchers retired opposing hitters with impunity, the O's have settled in with a punchless offense, unreliable starting pitching and a shaky bullpen.

Tonight the O's square off against Francisco Liriano (0-3, 9.42 ERA) and the Twins in Baltimore. Will the O's offense get healthy facing a struggling Liriano? or will Liriano start his turnaround facing the hapless Baltimore offense?

Even if the O's offense comes to life, it may not be enough as the O's send Chris Tillman (0-1, 7.30 ERA) to the mound. Tillman has surrendered 10 earned runs spanning 6 1/3 innings over his last two starts. However, the Twins are the only team in the AL to have scored fewer runs than the O's thus far, so, Tillman vs. the Twins offense also poses some intrigue.

Tul-OH!

2011-04-14T12:59:00.006-05:00

Over his previous 283 games (which date back to the start of the 2009 season) entering today, Rockies SS Troy Tulowitzki batted .305/.382/.568 with 162-games averages of 35 doubles, 7 triples, 37 HRs, 114 RBI and 18 SB. The most similar batter through age 25, according to baseball-reference.com, is Ernie Banks. That's not too shabby.

Furthermore, of the 10 most similar batters, five are in the Hall of Fame* and a few others might join that group: Banks*, Vern Stephens, Gary Carter*, Nomar Garciaparra, Joe Torre, Yogi Berra*, Hanley Ramirez, Tony Lazzeri*, Derek Jeter and Joe Gordon*.

Plus, Tulowitzki is among the best, if not the best, with the glove at SS.

Since the start of the 2009 season, the WAR leaders, according to Fangraphs, are: Albert Pujols (15.9), Ryan Zimmerman (14.4), Evan Longoria (14.1), Joe Mauer (13.0), Joey Votto (13.0) and Tulowitzki (13.0). Aside from noting that Ryan Zimmerman is sadly undernoticed because he plays in DC, you can see there are 3 MVPs and a ROY in that group and Tulowitzki is the lone middle infielder.

Tulowitzki, who today against the Mets is 3-for-4 with his 6th HR as I type this, is must-see TV.

Covered dish

2011-04-13T16:31:00.009-05:00

Ryan Howard, who is supposedly standing nearer the plate this year, is batting .359/.400/.692 so far. He is using the entire field, having pulled the ball 10 times, hit the ball up the middle 16 times and gone the opposite way 7 times (according to baseball-reference.com data). Last year, which was Howard's worst in the bigs, he pulled the ball 122 times, went up the middle 211 times and went the other way 47 times.

By percentages, that's pulling the ball 30.3% in 2011 compared to 32.1% in 2010, going up the middle 48.5% to 55.5% and going the other way 21.2% to 12.4%. So maybe standing nearing the plate is giving him better coverage on the outside pitches and he's driving them to the opposite field.

Howard's BB% had dipped slightly this year, but his K% his a historically low 17.8 (down from 25.3 last season and 27.4 average). Perhaps another sign of better plate coverage.

One other note of interest, Howard has 2 sac flies this year compared to only 3 all of last season.

This is all based on a very small sample and Howard can be a streaky hitter, but if these results are because of his new approach, it is encouraging for Phillies fans.

The master plan?

2011-04-13T14:52:00.003-05:00

Buck Showalter is receiving a lot of attention for his work with the Orioles. I think Baltimore was very shrewd to hire him as manager. It all but guarantees the O's will return to glory with a trip to the World Series. They just have to fire him.

Steeeeerike!

2011-04-13T08:51:00.001-05:00

Reliever Koji Uehara has compiled 46 strikeouts since his last walk.

It is the 5th longest streak since 1954.

The defense rests

2011-04-11T15:36:00.002-05:00

If there is one especially troublesome trend to the start of the season for the Tigers, it is their poor play in the field. Entering today's game against Texas, the Detroiters had committed a league-leading 13 errors in 9 games.

C Alex Avila (0-for-7 in throwing out runners), 1B Miguel Cabrera, 2B Will Rhymes, SS Jhonny Peralta, 3B Brandon Inge, RF Magglio Ordonez and Brennan Boesch all were ranked very much below average by various metrics. Only CF Austin Jackson and LF Ryan Raburn were average to better than average.

It is early and maybe the weather has not been great, contributing to poor fielding, but this is a worry.

Aye, There's the Rub

2011-04-11T08:30:00.003-05:00

The O's streaked out of the gate this season at 4-0 and have gone 2-3 since to stand at 6-3 and holding onto first in the AL East. They travel to New York today to start a 3 game set with the Yankees tomorrow.

The 6-3 start highlights both the strength and weakness of this team.

During the 4-0 run, the staff ERA was 1.00. Starters pitched 26 innings (72 %) and the bullpen tossed 10.

During the 2-3 run, the staff ERA was 5.2. Starters pitched 25 1/3 innings (56%) and the bullpen tossed 19 2/3.

This pitching staff has the talent to perform ala the 4-0 stretch and the inexperience to perform ala the 2-3 stretch. Too much of the latter and the O's go into the toilet, as they have for the previous 13 seasons. Just enough of the former and the O's will be quite fun to watch.

Everybody hits

2011-04-08T17:05:00.003-05:00

The Phillies batted .353/.407/.498 in their first 6 games. They have a .423 team BABIP. Obviously, these numbers cannot be sustained, but it has been fun to watch.

Much has been made of the Phillies not hitting the long ball (only 5 HR) and still scoring oodles of runs, but they're still slugging at a high clip thanks to 14 doubles. Most interesting is what the Phils did leading off an inning. In 50 PAs, they were .477/.540/.705.

Manny's exit

2011-04-08T15:53:00.002-05:00

Maybe he thought they were PEZ.

Bring on the Rangers!

2011-04-08T12:31:00.004-05:00

The Texas Rangers come to the "Land of Pleasant Living" for 3 games and I'm looking forward to the series with uncustomary glee!

O's pitching leads the AL in ERA. Ranger pitching is 3rd.

The O's have Vladimir Guerrero. The Rangers do not.

The O's are 5-1. The Rangers are ... 6-0.

O's are 11th in the AL in Batting Average. Rangers are ...... 3rd.

The O's are trying to reverse 13 years of losing baseball. The Rangers are............are defending AL champs.

umm............. Bring on the Red Sox!

Under Way

2011-04-04T07:55:00.003-05:00

The O's swept the Rays in the season series opener. O's starters posted a 0.45 ERA over 20 innings. The staff ERA is 1. The offense scored 12 runs in the 3 game series while facing Price, Shields and Wade. Showalter has the O's ready to play right out of the gate.

The last time the O's started a season 3-0 was 1997. They won the AL East.

The last time the O's started a season 3-0 on the road was 1970. They won the World Series.

Detroit comes to Baltimore for a 3 game set. The Tigers scored 19 runs in their series opener with the Yankees. Tiger bats are heated up and ready to go. This will likely be a stiffer test for the O's pitching staff than the opening series with the Rays.

The Tigers will send Porcello, Verlander and Penny to the mound in the 3 game set. With the exception of Verlander, this is not as tough a task as Price, Shields and Wade. It's still no cakewalk and O's bats better heat up for this series. I suspect 2 runs will not win any games in this set.

Draft Pick

2011-03-29T13:55:00.003-05:00

From the "Land of Pleasant Living", National Bohemian is returning to Camden Yards.

Stiff Neck@#!$@!#%

2011-02-24T14:14:00.004-05:00

If an offseason of high profile acquisitions of sluggers, both young and old (mostly old), and relief pitchers was enough to raise hopes so high that one might think the O's could contend, then this is a real damper.

Bless you

2010-11-04T13:55:00.002-05:00

Sparky Anderson 1934-2010

From the depths

2010-09-14T08:25:00.002-05:00

The Baltimore Orioles are 56-88 on the season and no longer the worst team in the AL.

That honor, for now, belongs to the Seattle Mariners whose record stands at 55-89.

Movin on up

2010-08-12T10:04:00.001-05:00

The Baltimore Orioles are 40-74. The Pittsburgh Pirates are 39-74.

So, at least for awhile, the O's are not the worst team in baseball.

2010-08-12T08:02:00.001-05:00

In Luke Scott's last 67 games he is hitting .320 with 19 HR and 45 RBI. Scott has always been a feast or famine streak hitter, however, 67 games is by far the longest hot streak he's ever had.

This is Scott's 6th ML campaign.

Has he matured into a dangerous hitter? Should the O's plan on having Scott in the middle of the lineup in 2011? or is this just a long hot streak and the O's should trade him this winter at his peak value?

Respond to a poll here.

What's happening?

2010-08-10T12:50:00.006-05:00

The Baltimore Orioles are 6-1 under new skipper Buck Showalter, having completed a 7 game homestand hosting the Angels and White Sox. It is only their 3rd winning homestand of the season and the only one where they played well in each game. Now they get their first road trip under Showalter as they head to Cleveland for 3 and Tampa Bay for 3 more.

The O's record is 38-74 on the season, the worst in ML baseball. 24-34 at home and 14-40 on the road, both worsts in the AL. However, they are 10-3 in extra inning contests and 21-16 in one run games.

So can they actually play ball and just haven't? Has the arrival of Buck Showalter at the helm flipped some "play good" switch? Has the coincidental return of Brian Roberts to the lineup been the catalyst? The departure of Miguel Tejada?

The Orioles are 6-1 under Buck Showalter. In those 7 games, the O's have pitched, fielded and hit well.

I don't know what the hell is going on.

Nick Markakis and George Brett?

2010-08-05T12:36:00.003-05:00

Mike Flanagan, Orioles talking head, compared Nick Markakis to Hall of Famer George Brett based on both players' habit of hustling on routine outs.

My initial reaction was that would be the only comparison.

I checked anyway:

Through 731 Games:

Stat	Nick	George
AB	2773	2850
Runs	417	413
Hits	822	870
TB	1289	1298
2B	197	169
3B	9	53
HR	84	51
RBI	399	353
BB	313	210
IBB	22	28
SO	457	187
SB	40	79
CS	16	45
Avg	.296	.305

Hmmm.......

Hmmm......

2010-07-06T09:33:00.004-05:00

In yesterdays 12-9 loss to the Tigers, O's ace Kevin Millwood threw 45 pitches, 27 of them balls, surrendering 4 hits, 2 walks and 5 earned runs and was relieved after recording 3 outs.

In yesterdays 3-1 victory over the Braves, Phillies ace Roy Halladay threw 93 pitches, 25 of them balls in a complete game victory. Halladay recorded more outs than pitches out of the strike zone.

Gone again

2010-06-29T15:09:00.002-05:00

On the night the Tigers won in Minnesota to take over first place, Joel Zumaya was lost for the season. Casey Fien rejoins the club.

Zumaya's star-crossed career started in 2006, when he was a key component in the Tigers reaching the World Series (6-3, 1.94 ERA). After three seasons in which he was limited to a total of 88 IP, he was seemingly back to the old Zumaya this year. His 38 IP were his most since 2006 and he was 2-1 with a 2.58 ERA.

Boesch spice

2010-06-24T13:00:00.003-05:00

I have to admit, I keep waiting for Brennan Boesch to return to earth. But with each passing day, I wonder if he will. Boesch did go 0-for-3 last night, but reached base via walk. In 49 career games, he's gone hitless in 13. He's walked in 6 of those hitless games, so he's been off base just 7 times so far. He's got a 4-hit game, two 3-hit games, and 21 total multi-hit games.

Boesch went 2-for-4 in his debut April 23. Two days later, he went 0-for-4 and saw his average drop to .250. In his next appearance, he got two hits to push the average up to .313. Since then, there have been only 4 days in which his average dipped below .300, and it's not been below .318 since May 9.

In 66 PAs in Triple-A this year, Boesch batted .379/.455/.621. In 2009, in 571 PAs in Double-A, he batted .275/.318/.510. Maybe his maturation as a hitter will mean his performance so for in Detroit isn't a fluke.

Of course, he will not sustain his current .337/.389/.624 pace. His balls-in-play average is .373, which is high considering a 15% line-drive rate. His 19% rate of HR on flyballs is a little high, but given he's 6-foot-6, 210 pounds, it might be about what to expect. He can mash.

And he will take his hacks. Boesch swings at 59% of pitches, which is 14% more than average. He swings at 45% of pitches out of the strike zone (28% is average) but swings and misses just 11% of the time (8% is average). He's been destroying fastballs and crushing sliders and curves. Across the big leagues, only Robinson Cano is handling those 3 pitches with the type of success Boesch is enjoying.

Moyer's Hall pass?

2010-06-23T21:34:00.003-05:00

There is growing talk about Jamie Moyer and the Hall of Fame. I think what Moyer is doing at his age is remarkable, but I'm not sure, even with his 266-and-counting wins, that he is Hall worthy. Moyer is only 65 games above .500 lifetime and his 162-game average for his career is 14-10 with a 4.22 ERA. His ERA has topped 5 seven times in his career.

Looking at ERA+ as a gauge, Moyer is at 105 for his career, which is just above average. His best mark was 132, which is not even among the top 500 seasons in history. He's had 12 seasons with an ERA+ above 100 and 12 seasons (including this year) below 100. The only categories in which he's ever been a league-leader is earned runs allowed (114 in 1987) and HRs (44 in 2004). He never won a Cy Young Award, finishing as high as fourth once and fifth once.

One the plus side, Moyer is one of only a handful of active pitchers with multiple 20-win seasons (two). From 1997-2003, he was very good, going 113-53 with a 3.75 ERA (and ERA+ of 120). If he gets Hall consideration, it's as a lifetime achievement award.

Going back to ERA+, Bert Blyleven had six seasons better than Moyer's best and 17 seasons of 107 or better. Curt Schilling had 14 seasons of 119 or better and 5 seasons of 150 or better. Jack Morris is among the most comparable to Moyer. Morris also has a career mark of 105, a career best of 133 and 11 seasons of 100 or better.

A career ERA+ of 105 puts Moyer in a tie for 475th place in history. He is tied for 32nd place among active pitchers.

#?*!@^

2010-06-21T07:38:00.004-05:00

The Baltimore Orioles are 4-11 since the firing of Dave Trembley as manager and 19-50 overall. They are on pace to win 44 games this season, which would prevent them from being the worst team in Major League history (in the modern era).

But, they have to stay hot.

Joe Blah-ton

2010-06-17T13:19:00.004-05:00

Joe Blanton is 1-5 with a 7.28 ERA in 8 starts this year. Without looking at stats, I thought it would be a poor first-pitch strike percentage that was Joe's undoing. I was wrong. Joe's at 61%, which is better than league average and the best mark of his career.

Blanton struck out 7.5/9 IP last year. This season, he's at 5/9 IP, which is around his norm for every year other than 2009. His walk rate is down from 2.7 to 2.1/9 IP comparing last year to this season.

The line drive rate for Blanton is 15% so his .332 BABIP is high. His flyball rate is up, which has led to an increase in homers. He is stranding 59% of baserunners, which is down from 79% last year and well below his norm of around 68% in all other years.

It seems many things might have gone right for Blanton in 2009 and nothing is going right this year. Here is what I believe can explain part of the trouble:

Blanton's getting a career-best 32% swing rate at pitches outside the strike zone. However, batters are making contact on 78% of swings at pitches outside the zone -- which is 11% higher than average. These swings are resulting in lucky hits, as evidenced by his .332 BABIP, and also reducing his chances for strikeouts.

Last year, batters made contact on only 59% of swings at pitches outside the strike zone.

Justin time

2010-06-16T13:31:00.003-05:00

Maybe the Tigers need to convince Justin Verlander that the season begins on April 27.

Since April 27, Verlander is 6-3 with a 2.39 ERA. He's got 55 K in 64 IP and foes are batting a paltry .179/.253/.262 (.515 OPS). In his first 4 starts of the season, Verlander was 1-1 with a 6.95 ERA. Opponents had an .809 OPS.

Last year, Verlander was 0-2 with an ERA of 9.00 and OPS allowed of .909 in his first four starts. Then -- beginning again on April 27 -- went 19-7 with a 2.92 ERA and .637 OPS the rest of the season.

In his career, Verlander is 7-11 with a 5.06 ERA in March/April. He has a winning record in all other months.

Bottoms up

2010-06-14T20:40:00.006-05:00

Carlos Guillen returned to Detroit's lineup on May 28 and since then the Tigers have batted .271/.328/.444 and averaged 4.1 runs. When Guillen was out of the lineup, Detroit batted .265/.329/.411 and averaged 4.5 runs in 30 games.

This might not seem a big difference, but the Tigers' offense is better. First, some of the work done since Guillen returned was done without Magglio Ordonez in the lineup and with Austin Jackson struggling at the top.

Guillen's return and move to second base allowed the Tigers to replace a struggling bat in Scott Sizemore and drop Brandon Inge from the No. 6 spot to No. 7. Brennan Boesch's hitting has been a plus as well as the fact Detroit released Adam Everett and started giving more time to Alex Avila at catcher over Gerald Laird. Avila has started to hit and the bottom of the order, which was a black hole, has turned more of a shade of gray.

Inge is batting .357/.390/.464 since Guillen's return. Avila is hitting .370/.433/.481. Boesch, who was hitting well in Guillen's absence, has gone .340/.431/.660 with Guillen hitting behind him. His OBP was .358 and his slugging was .608 without Guillen.

Hopefully, Guillen stays healthy and we can see if these numbers are a trend rather than simply a blip of good hitting.

Alexander the (briefly) great

2010-06-10T17:17:00.000-05:00

A while back I saw a note that Austin Jackson was only the second Tiger in history to collect at least one hit in 36 of his first 43 career games. The other was Dale (Moose) Alexander in 1929. Who was Alexander, I wondered. A briefly incredible and yet now-forgotten player, it turned out.

Alexander, a 6-foot-3, 215-pound first baseman, was considered by some as a right-handed hitting Babe Ruth. He led the AL with 215 hits in 1929 as a rookie, batting .343-25-137. His 137 RBI were a rookie record at the time. Baseball Digest in 1975 named Alexander the all-time rookie first baseman. Alexander led the AL in hitting (.367) in 1932 and finished his brief 5-year career with a .331 BA. His lifetime OPS was .891 and his career OPS+ was 128.

His career was cut short by a leg injury made worse by some kind of heat therapy gone awry.

I've Got Nothing Else

2010-06-07T10:39:00.005-05:00

The Orioles defeated the Red Sox by a score of 4-3 yesterday. The O's now stand at 5-4 on the season versus the Red Sox.

Julio Lugo, however, was in the starting lineup.

Reprise

2010-06-04T09:30:00.004-05:00

On the occasion of the dismissal of O's manager Dave Trembley, we can't say we did not see that coming.

Perfectly memorable

2010-06-03T21:41:00.003-05:00

As disappointed as I was by Armando Galarraga being robbed of a perfect game, it has turned out to be something not likely to be forgotten. Galarraga will probably be more highly regarded and remembered for his handling of the situation than if he'd actually gotten the perfecto. That might not be any consolation for Galarraga, but maybe it is. All I know is we gained a lot of respect and admiration for Galarraga the man rather than simply Galarraga the pitcher. Jim Leyland is pretty cool, too.

Perfectly bad

2010-06-02T20:20:00.003-05:00

I've never seen a 28-batter perfect game. Until tonight. Oh, Armando you deserved so much better.

Masterson of his own domain

2010-05-31T20:02:00.004-05:00

Cleveland's Justin Masterson might be a great candidate for a bounce back on the pitching side. Masterson is 0-5 with a 5.87 ERA, but those numbers don't reflect his performance. Masterson is striking out 9.06 per 9 innings (MLB average is 7.07) and has a 62% groundball rate (which is around his career norm).

Given his GB rate, it seems he is the victim of bad luck as his BABIP is .404. His walk rate (4.53 per 9 IP) is a little high, but a 2-to-1 K/BB rate with that GB rate should produce much better results. His GB rate is second best in the bigs and his K/9 rate is 11th. His BABIP is the worst. Of the top 21 in K/9 rate, Masterson is one of only 3 who is stranding fewer than 74% of baserunners, and Masterson's mark is 64.

I wonder if Cleveland's coaches will try to "fix" Masterson because of his ERA. Really, there seems to be nothing to fix other than his luck.

Phils Phlop

2010-05-30T19:17:00.006-05:00

If not for Roy Halladay's perfecto, the past week or so would be stinko. The Phils got shut out again today -- the fifth time since beating Boston 5-1 on May 21. That's a span of 8 games. They scored 1 or fewer runs in 8 of their last 12 (and their 1 run last night was unearned). Heading into today, Philly batted .201/.279/.289 in its previous 11 games. They stranded 78 runners.

Slumps are not new for the Phils, but this is breaking new ground. The problems are numerous, but here's what stand out to me.

First, the bench is no good. The OPS+ ratings for the subs are: Ross Gload 73, Wilson Valdez 72, Juan Castro 64, Ben Francisco 51, Greg Dobbs 24 and Brian Schneider 8. With injuries to Jimmy Rollins (OPS+ 187), Carlos Ruiz and Placido Polanco, these players have been called into action too frequently.

Shane Victorino, aside from a 15-game streak in which he got 5 of his 8 HR and 17 of his 33 RBI, has not be productive, batting .257 with a .314 OBP. Entering today, he batted .190 in his previous 11 games with 1 run and 1 RBI. His OPS+ for the season is 101.

Jayson Werth has slumped (but still has an OPS+ of 152), Raul Ibanez has been inconsistent (OPS+ 98) and Ryan Howard's OPS+ is 111 (career 140).

Given the weakness of the bench, the Phils need their boppers bopping. Or Halladay to be perfect.

D-Train D-smissed

2010-05-30T19:00:00.001-05:00

Dontrelle Willis' rocky career with the Tigers appears to be over.

High 5

2010-05-26T17:06:00.002-05:00

The Tigers are 7-2 when scoring 5 runs and 12-0 when scoring more than 5 runs.

Turnarounds revisited

2010-05-24T21:29:00.004-05:00

On April 29, I listed several players that might be due for offensive turnarounds based on their high line-drive percentages and low BABIPs. Here is a then-and-now comparison.

Travis Snider (aka The Amazing Sniderman) was a turnaround player prior to landing on the DL. On April 28 he was batting .125-2-4 in 75 PAs. His OPS was .503. Since then, he batted .385-4-11 in 55 PAs. His OPS was 1.187.

A.J. Pierzynski was batting .167-0-3 in 66 PAs. His OPS was .431. Since then, he's batted .254-2-10 in 75 PAs. His OPS was .716. His OPS the past three years was .732, so he's approached his norm.

Nick Johnson gets an incomplete after landing on the DL, although his OPS went from .617 to .963 in the six games he played prior to getting hurt after April 28.

Jhonny Peralta was .190-1-6 in 79 PAs. His OPS was .631. Since, he's .272-2-12 in 88 PAs. His OPS was .799 (.756 average the last three years).

Jeff Clement saw his playing time cut and also saw his OPS drop in limited action since April 28.

Finally, Luke Scott was .213-2-7 in 68 PAs. His OPS was .688. Since then, he's gone .324-7-13 in 77 PAs. His OPS was 1.039.

So, overall, improvement was evident.

As a related aside, I noted on May 4 that Austin Jackson's numbers were ridiculous. In 63 PAs since, he's batted .259 with a .628 OPS.

Don't think, Meat

2010-05-17T22:13:00.003-05:00

OK, I've given up trying to figure out this Tigers team. Logic is suspended. I'm just going to enjoy the ride for as long as it goes. How can anyone figure this team? On Saturday night I was convinced they were going to lose, trailing Boston by 6-1, and give back all the momentum they gained from taking 3 of 4 from the Yankees. Instead, Detroit rallied for a 7-6 win in 12 innings and won again on Sunday to make it 5 of 7 against NY and the Sox.

The Tigers won Saturday despite allowing a dozen walks and striking out 15 times. Go figure. It was the fourth time Detroit rallied from a five-run deficit to win. Entering tonight, I believe the rest of MLB combined to do it three times.

According to the Detroit press notes, the Tigs are the first team to win four consecutive home series against teams that made the playoffs the previous year since MLB added the wild card in 1995. The Tigers are coming off home series wins over the Twins, Angels, Yanks and Red Sox.

The Tigers have had five position players (Austin Jackson, Scott Sizemore, Brennan Boesch, Casper Wells and Danny Worth) make their major league debuts this year, marking the first time since 1922 this has occurred for Detroit in the team's first 38 or fewer games. Boesch is the first Tigers player since at least 1920 to have at least one RBI in 12 of his first 19 career games.

Carlos Guillen, Zach Miner and Bobby Seay have all been hurt. Sizemore and Max Scherzer have been sent to the minors. The starting pitching has been generally lackluster. Only five hitters (Jackson, Johnny Damon, Magglio Ordonez, Miguel Cabrera and Boesch) have hit consistently. The defense has been below expectations. None of it has seemed to matter.

One has to believe this will catch up with the Tigers at some point. Detroit is 22-16. Maybe it's Motown Magic. Who knows? I'm done thinking.

Balancing act

2010-05-14T15:39:00.002-05:00

Detroit is 20-15 after a great series against the Yanks in which the Tigs took 3 of 4. The starting pitching, for the first time this season, was solid. For the first time this season, the starters put together three consecutive Game Scores above 60 -- Rick Porcello 68, Jeremy Bonderman 65 and Justin Verlander 66. Even though the Tigers lost Bonderman's start, it was encouraging.

This year, though, has been fairly uneven for Detroit regardless of the starting pitching. The Tigers are 11-7 in games in which the starters have a Game Score of 50 or better; they are 9-8 in games in which the starters are 49 or worse.

Detroit is 14-2 when scoring 6 or more runs and 10-12 when allowing 4 or more.

The Tigers have outscored their opponents by a total of only 4 runs for the year. They are averaging 4.63 runs per game, which is just better than the AL average and ranks No. 7 in the league. They are second in BA (.274), third in OBP (.351) and fifth in slugging (.424). They are fourth in OPS, but are scoring 0.34 to 0.96 fewer runs per game than the three teams ahead of them.

This is because the bottom third of the lineup has been mostly a disaster. Scott Sizemore, Gerald Laird and Adam Everett have OPS+ of 64, 52 and 24, respectively. 24!

The AL average OPS for hitters 7-9 is .676. Sizemore is at .602 to lead the bottom third of Detroit's lineup. They've managed to hit 2 HR and drive in 14 runs. They've scored 20 runs.

It's rather remarkable the Tigers are 20-15 with this mish-mash of production. Of course, most of the credit goes to the bullpen, which leads the AL in wins (10), ERA (2.56) and IP (116). The last number is a concern, but hopefully the starters can continue their recent success this weekend against Boston.

Relief

2010-05-13T07:39:00.002-05:00

Since a miserable 2-16 start to the 2010 campaign, the O's have gone 8-8 in their last 16 games. These against Boston (4-0), New York (1-5), Minnesota (2-2) and Seattle (1-1).

The biggest difference has been the back end of the bullpen. Alfredo Simon was converted from starter to bullpen for 1 week while still at AAA Norfolk, then promoted and plugged into the O's bullpen as closer. He's got 4 Saves and 1 Hold in 5 Appearances.

Koji Uehara was activated from the DL and has 3 Holds in 3 Appearances.

Will Ohman has taken over the 7th inning role and has yet to allow a Run in 11 IP.

Didn't See That Coming

2010-05-07T08:37:00.003-05:00

The O's defeated the 1st place Twins 2-0 in Minnesota last night. Brad Bergeson tossed 6 2/3 and Will Ohman, Koji Uehara and Alfredo Simon retired the final 7 in order to preserve the shutout.

More please.

Off and on

2010-05-06T14:25:00.003-05:00

The Tigers finally get a day off, and they apparently needed it after being swept in 3 by the Twins. This after a 5-game win streak that included a sweep of the Halos. So Detroit finished its 20-game stretch (with no off days and a West Coast swing) with a 10-10 record.

Detroit is 16-13 at this point, which is terrific given the state of the starting pitching. Dontrelle Willis -- yes, the D-Train -- leads the starters with a 3.99 ERA. Rick Porcello (ERA+ 57), Max Scherzer (67), Jeremy Bonderman (75) and Justin Verlander (96) have been below league average. Porcello and Scherzer have been ridiculously hittable, both allowing OPS around .925, but might be victims of some bad luck with BABIPs of .398 and .340, respectively.

The Tigers' starters rank worst in the AL in quality starts, Game Score and innings per start.

Detroit is 8-7 when allowing 4 to 8 runs. The MLB win percentage is .318 when allowing 4 to 8 runs. The Tigers are 11-2 when scoring 5 or more runs (and 8-0 when scoring 6 or more).

The Tigers' .794 OPS is fourth best in the AL, even with Gerald Laird (whose .486 OPS is nearly identical to Justin Morneau's on-base percentage). Detroit's .326 BABIP, probably distorted a bit because of Austin Jackson's insane number, is the best in the AL.

It would seem the Tigers' bats would be in danger of cooling at some point. It also would seem likely (hopefully) the starting pitching improves. If those two things happen, chances are that Detroit is pretty much, record wise, what they are right now.

All-time Tiger

2010-05-04T22:09:00.004-05:00

Ridiculous, thy name is Austin Jackson

2010-05-04T12:59:00.004-05:00

We were right, Austin Jackson could not continue with a .491 BABIP.

He's now at .532. That's nearly a hundred points higher than No. 2 David Freese.

In 26 games, the rookie has 43 hits and is batting .377/.427/.526. He's got 8 doubles, 3 triples and a homer. He's got 22 runs. He has 8 multi-hit games in his last 10, including a 5-for-5 and two 3-hit days. He's 22 for his last 44 and has an OPS of 1.236 during that span.

How long can this keep going on?

No doubt at this point in the year, Detroit is loving Jackson and Phil Coke, who came from the Yankees in the Curtis Granderson-Edwin Jackson deal that included Arizona.

Coke is merely 3-0 with a 1.93 ERA in 13 games out of the pen.

Howard's deal

2010-05-04T08:58:00.003-05:00

There's been much talk over the past week about Ryan Howard's contract extension. Only time will tell if it was a good or bad deal. Howard fans point to his HR and RBI totals as proof he's a great player worthy of his contract. No doubt, Howard is a terrific power hitter, particularly against RHP, which he kills.

But he is fairly one dimensional now, with nearly all his value tied to the long ball. If that skill erodes prior to the age 35, as has been the case with sluggers of Howard's type, the Phils will be in trouble.

I'm not going to suggest Howard is not a worthwhile player. But basing value on HR and RBI alone can be misleading.

Consider this player: He led the league in RBIs only once in his career and had seasons in his prime in which he drove in "only" 83, 106, 110, 90, 101 runs. He never surpassed 137. Hard to say, though, that the player -- Barry Bonds -- wasn't the most feared or best hitting in the game during that time.

There's also been a lot of comparisons drawn between Howard and Pujols. Last year, Howard hit 45 HR and had 141 RBI. Pujols hit 47 HR and had 135 RBI.

Pujols had 10 whiffs and 5 GDP with RISP. Howard had 63 Ks and 6 GDP. Pujols had 189 PAs with RISP and drove in 83 runs. He batted .405 with men on 1st and 2nd, .571 with men on 2nd and 3rd (with 10 IBB in 20 PAs) and .588 with the bases loaded. He drove in 105 runs in 346 PAs with men on base (and totaled 82 BB, with 43 IBB and 6 HBP).

Howard had 216 PAs with RISP and drove in 96 runs. He batted .259 with men on 1st and 2nd, .364 with men on 2nd and 3rd (with 1 IBB in 15 PAs) and .278 with the bases loaded. He drove in 120 runs in 354 PAs with men on base (and totaled 43 BB, with 8 IBB and 4 HBP).

If you subtract BBs and HBP from their PAs with RISP, Pujols collected .654 RBI/PA while Howard was .527 RBI/PA. Prince Fielder, for the record, was at .578 RBI/PA.

Smug Satisfaction

2010-05-03T07:32:00.002-05:00

Baltimore swept a 3 game series from Boston over the weekend. It is the first O's series sweep of Boston in Baltimore since 1974.

And with Julio Lugo sitting on the Orioles bench:-)

Due for turnarounds?

2010-04-29T17:04:00.003-05:00

Players with BABIPs below .240, but line drive rates above 20%:

Travis Snider .133/23.4
A.J. Pierzynski .182/24.1
Nick Johnson .200/25.0
Jhonny Peralta .220/23.5
Jeff Clement .225/20.9
Luke Scott .239/20.8

All Time Firsts, Again

2010-04-29T07:50:00.002-05:00

Cla Meredith and Alfredo Simon recorded their first career Major League saves in back to back games this past Sunday and Tuesday, respectively.

The last time two Orioles recorded their first career saves in back to back games was May 7th and 8th, 1977 by Mike Flanagan and Scott McGregor.

Uh-O's

2010-04-28T15:34:00.003-05:00

Some numbers on the O's:

Baltimore has scored 3 or fewer runs 13 times this season. The Orioles have allowed 3 or fewer runs 3 times. (In fact, they've allowed 3 runs 3 times and not had a game in which they allowed 0, 1 or 2).

The O's have allowed an average of 1.03 runs in the 9th. They've allowed 0.65 runs in the 8th.

According to baseball-reference.com, the MLB average for runs allowed in the 9th is 0.49. For the 8th, it's 0.48.

Baltimore has lost 4 games in which it led or was tied going into the 9th. The MLB win percentage when ahead entering the 9th is .931.

Jackson hole

2010-04-28T13:48:00.005-05:00

Austin Jackson is off to a solid start for the Tigers. He is batting .314/.379/.453 and his .832 OPS is 24% better than average. He has 1 HR, 6 RBI, 3 SB and 14 R in 20 games. He also is playing well defensively in center field.

Now, the trouble spot. His BABIP is a league-high .491. Franklin Gutierrez is second at .422. It is obvious Jackson cannot sustain this type of success. And he needs to sustain it because he also has a league-high 32 whiffs (in just 95 PAs). More than half his outs are Ks.

Once those balls stop dropping for hits, this low contact rate will severely impact his stats. Consider this: The BABIP leaders from Gutierrez through No. 10 Joe Mauer (covering a range of .422 to .373) all have batting averages between .320 and .389. In the case of Mauer, as an example, Jackson is batting more than a hundred points higher in BABIP yet batting 42 points lower in actual average.

Jackson's BABIP is not completely fluky, though. His line drive percentage is nearly 35, which is third-highest in MLB. And his K% is actually only fourth-worst in MLB (and a tick better than all-world Jason Heyward).

AL Beast?

2010-04-27T12:31:00.003-05:00

The Baltimore Orioles have twice as many victories over AL East opponents as they do over the rest of the AL.

No holidays for Halliday

2010-04-27T11:27:00.004-05:00

Roy Halliday got beat last night by the Giants. Heard some concern about his workload thus far, with two complete games and his MLB-leading 40 IP in 5 starts. So I looked back to see if this alone was cause for pause.

Last year, Halliday threw 36 innings in his first 5 starts, so he's not far off that mark. In 2008, Halliday really hit the ground running. He had 41 IP in 5 starts and tossed 4 CGs in his first 6 outings of the campaign. In 2007, he had 2 CGs in April and went 10 innings in his third start of the year. He threw 38.1 IP in his first 5 starts.

Even his 5 ER last night in SF should not be viewed as trouble. Halliday gave up 5 ERs twice in his first 4 starts in 2009.

Verlander's pitch counts

2010-04-23T11:09:00.006-05:00

Justin Verlander threw 125 pitches last night to get through 5 innings. He's pitched more than 5 innings in only one of four starts this season. And his pitch count seems something of a mystery.

Here are the facts:

Verlander is tied with Rich Harden for the lead among qualified AL pitchers with 4.36 pitches per plate appearance. Yet Verlander's strike percentage (69%) is No. 2 in the AL behind only Scott Baker, who goes 3.71 pitches per plate appearance. In fact, among the top 19 pitchers in the category, Verlander is the only one averaging more than 4 pitches/PA.

First-strike percentage? Verlander (67%) is No. 3 in the AL. Among the top 21 in that category, Verlander is one of two pitchers to average more than 4.01 pitches/PA.

Verlander is tied for No. 2 in percentage of pitches swung at (50%). He is tied for 29th in contact percentage (82%). He is 33rd in swinging strikes (13%).

Yet, Verlander's BB/9 is the second worst of his career so far this season (3.68). The only other time his BB/9 was over 3 for a season was 2008 when he was 11-17 with a 4.84 ERA. Otherwise, he's 54-24 with a 3.57 ERA.

Also, Verlander has gone 0-2 on 34 of 95 PAs. That's 36% while the AL average is 22. He's thrown 23 strikes on 0-2, but has only 5 three-pitch Ks. He's given up two hits on 0-2.

I have to contemplate what these numbers mean. I guess batters simply are waiting out Verlander.

They might be Giants

2010-04-22T16:02:00.002-05:00

Or they might not be.

While perusing the press notes available for each team on MLB.com, I came across a few interesting tidbits on the SF Giants.

* The Giants have spent 16 days in first place this season. Over the previous three years, they spent a total of 3 days.

* On Tuesday, San Fran lost for the first time in 24 games (since 1958) when limiting an opponent to 1 hit.

* Since 1900, the Giants have lost three games in which they limited their foe to 1 hit. The first was in 1906 and the second was in 1917.

* The Giants lost three consecutive games (April 18-20) in which they didn't allow a hit with runners in scoring position. San Fran went 1-for-25 with RISP and lost 2-1, 3-2 and 1-0.

Amazin'

2010-04-22T15:25:00.001-05:00

All of the teams in the NL East are above .500. Oh, wait. I mean all but one.

Respite

2010-04-22T07:42:00.003-05:00

The O's get a much needed day off today (needed for me, anyway) before starting Boston's turnaround tomorrow in Fenway Park.

While the pitching is much improved over last year, the snakebitten O's have 4 blown saves, the closer they traded for in the offseason is on the DL and their best pitcher from 2009 has been demoted to AAA Norfolk.

The defense started well, committing one error in the first 7 games, however, they've committed 9 more in the last 9 games.

The offense is horrible. With no sign of improvement. Leadoff hitter Brian Roberts is on the DL. Felix Pie replaced Roberts at the top of the lineup and hit .400 til he went on the DL. No one is hitting. No one advances runners. No one can bunt. No one takes pitches. Everyone makes outs. Quickly. The O's offense is painful to watch, but at least it's over quickly.

Momentum is the next day's starting pitcher

2010-04-21T14:10:00.004-05:00

More fun with Game Scores!

The three AL teams with Game Score averages of 55 or better are Tampa Bay, Toronto and NY. They are a combined 29-13 (.690).

Of the nine teams with Game Score averages of 50 or better, seven have winning records. The nine teams are a combined 75-52 (.591).

Of the five teams with Game Score averages of 49 or worse, none have winning records. (The Tigers are .500.) The five teams are a combined 24-47 (.338).

Maddening

2010-04-21T13:22:00.002-05:00

Ryan Madson blew another save last night. He is now in his career 4-8 with 18 saves (in 38 save opps) and a 4.51 ERA in save situations and 25-13 with a 2.66 ERA in non-save spots.

His BABIP in save/non-save situations is .324/.289 and he has allowed 17 HR in 141.2 save situation innings and 22 HR in 290.2 non-save situation innings. He has a 4.55 ERA in the 9th inning and his OPS+ in the 9th is 13% worse than average. His OPS+ in the 8th is 19% better than average. His K/BB ratio in the 9th is 2.60 and in the 8th is 3.33.

The fact he seems more hittable in save situations/9th innings leads one to believe it's a matter of his approach in those situations. According to Fangraphs data, Madson gets a much higher percentage of swings at pitches outside the strike zone than average and gets more swings and misses than average. He also gets more swings at pitches inside the strike zone and tends to throw a higher percentage of pitches in the strike zone than average. This might sound odd, but maybe he throws too many pitches for strikes? Or too many hittable pitches for strikes.

Start and stop

2010-04-20T15:03:00.002-05:00

The Tigers are now 7-6 and the bats have gone cold. This is not good news for the starting pitching. Last night, Dontrelle Willis had a good outing, but lost 2-0. Of course, the bats bailed out the pitchers during the first week of the season, so it evens out I suppose.

Detroit's starters have put together three decent starts in a row for the first time this season, which is good. But they haven't been great starts. So far in 13 games, the starters have posted a Game Score of 60+ just twice. Six starts have been below 45. Remarkably, the Tigs are 3-3 in those six outings, but it's unlikely you can play .500 ball that way over time.

Also, the Tigers' starters have pitched only 62 percent of the staff's total innings. Oakland, which leads the AL in ERA, has got 67 percent from its starters. Texas, which is second in ERA, has gotten 66 percent. Tampa Bay, which is third in ERA, is at 69 percent.

The Tigers' 5.5 IP per start is the lowest in the AL. They are second to Boston for fewest quality starts and tied with Baltimore for second-worst Game Score average, again behind Boston.

Oh no-no!

2010-04-20T14:56:00.003-05:00

I had to travel to Atlanta for business last weekend. I went to the Rockies-Braves game Friday night, which Atlanta won 9-5 in a crisp 3 hours, 17 minutes before an announced crowd of 27,692. I had to work Saturday. So, I missed a no-hitter Saturday night despite being only 10 miles away from the stadium. At some point soon, though, I plan to put up a video of my tour around Turner Field. It's a nice ballpark. And not very crowded.

The game started when?

2010-04-14T10:59:00.002-05:00

Baseball is a 9 inning game unless you're the Tigers. Then 5 is enough. Detroit has scored 37 runs from the 5th through 9th frames. That's an average of 4.62 runs an outing. That's higher than the AL average of 4.4 runs for an entire game, and better or equal to the output of nine other AL squads per entire contest. The 37 runs for the Tigs represent 80 percent of their total runs. Detroit's OPS for innings 7-9 is 1.063. The OPS vs. foes' relievers is 1.006.

This could mean several things: 1) The Tigers are not good against quality starting pitching; 2) The Tigers have a potent offense that can explode at any time; 3) The KC and Cleveland bullpens stink.

Chances are it is some combination of the above. The next several weeks will provide more answers, or more questions. Either way, we'll be watching.

Nostalgus Interruptis

2010-04-14T10:16:00.007-05:00

My nephew took me to the O's game last night for Matt Wieters T-shirt night. Brian Matusz took the hill for Baltimore and for 7 1/3 innings he was masterful, twirling a 2 hitter (both were bunt singles), striking out 8 and generally mystifying Rays hitters.

I even went so far as to advise my nephew to appreciate the pitching performance he was witnessing and remarked on how I use to see this kind of thing twice a week back in the McGregor/Flanagan days.

But, with one out in the 8th, the Rays abruptly solved the rookie and strung together 4 consecutive hits, 3 of them on first pitches, plating one run and loading the bases. Two more hits off of Orioles relief pitching turned a 3-0 O's lead into a 5-3 deficit. The O's eventually lost 8-6 in 10 innings.

Oh well, at least I got to see Julio Lugo on the O's bench:-)

Swing batter

2010-04-13T11:32:00.003-05:00

The Rangers lead the AL in swinging at pitches, offering at 48.5% while the Blue Jays are second at 46.9. Texas also leads in swinging at pitches outside the strike zone, at 30.5 percent. The Jays, by comparison, are at 27.1, which is 8th. The Yankees and Tigers have swung at the fewest pitches outside the strike zone. The Yankees and Tigers are 1st and 3rd, respectively, in contact percentage. The Rangers are worst.

The Yankees, Blue Jays and Tigers have the best walk rates. The Jays have the worst strikeout rate; the Rangers are sixth.

Texas is eighth in runs. The Tigers are second and Yankees are fourth. The Jays are fifth. The Blue Jays are doing it with power (1st in HR and ISO) while the Tigers are doing it by getting on base (1st in OBP).

Special start

2010-04-12T12:38:00.002-05:00

The Tigers are off to their best start since 2006, when they went to the World Series. Even though it is very early, it's hard not to look at the first week and feel like this could be the start of a special season. Granted, Detroit went 5-1 against KC and Cleveland -- not the toughest competition around. But it's the way the Tigs have gone about their biz that gives one hope.

A look at some odds and ends.

Detroit has scored 35 runs this year, with 30 coming from the fifth inning on (and 20 from the seventh inning on). And this with Johnny Damon not hitting.

Magglio and Miguel are raking. The reborn M&M Boys.

The Tigers got good starts from Dontrelle Willis and Jeremy Bonderman. Even two less-than-stellar starts from Justin Verlander resulted in victories, including yesterday's wild 9-8 triumph. The bullpen has been solid, posting a 2.35 ERA.

Detroit took advantage of errors and failures by their foes. Meanwhile, the Tigers turned 10 double plays and commited only two errors.

Walking away happy

2010-04-09T10:44:00.004-05:00

Dontrelle Willis is unbeaten in games in which he walks the first batter on four pitches.

The Tigers salvaged a 2-1 start to the campaign in KC thanks to Johnny Damon beginning the eighth inning with a walk after he should've been called out on strikes, Magglio Ordonez reaching on an error and Miguel Cabrera going yard. Take what they give ya.

Detroit has scored 17 runs in 3 games. Only 1 of those runs crossed the plate prior to the sixth inning.

Orioles Go to the Matusz

2010-04-09T08:57:00.003-05:00

The Orioles notched their first victory of the season by a score of 5-4 last night in Tampa Bay. Rookie Brian Matusz got the win in a 5 inning effort. Going back to last season, it is Matusz' 4th win in his last 4 starts.

Young, but old

2010-04-08T14:02:00.004-05:00

According to STATS, the Tigers have MLB's youngest rotation: Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer, Dontrelle Willis, Rick Porcello and Jeremy Bonderman. The average age is 25.6. In spite of the youthful appearance, the group has combined for 565 games in the bigs.

To the nines

2010-04-08T13:43:00.002-05:00

Detroit tied last night's game against KC with Miguel Cabrera's HR in the top of the ninth, took a 2-1 lead in the top of the 11th and then lost 3-2. Last year, the Tigers won 6 games when they trailed entering the ninth inning and their .080 win percentage in those situations was nearly double the MLB average.

Blazing Burrell

2010-04-07T12:30:00.003-05:00

Pat Burrell scored from second on a single to left last night. Not the type of thing you expect to see from a plodder like Burrell (who ran through the third-base coach's stop sign). It looked like Matt Wieters could have made a play, but was unable to corral the throw and make the tag. This is forgivable, figuring Wieters was either caught by surprise and/or laughing.

But it seems Burrell is more likely to gamble on the bases when he's on second. Last year, he went from second to home on singles 3 times in 9 chances (and was never thrown out). He went from first to third on singles just 4 times in 21 opportunities. In 2008, he scored from second on a single on 8 of 13 chances (never out again) while going first to third only 2 times in 23 chances.

So beware when Burrell is on second.

P U

2010-04-07T11:20:00.004-05:00

Chris Young pitched the Padres to victory last night while teammate Will Venable homered. Princeton boys. Go figure. Young was the first person to be named first-team All-Ivy League in both baseball and basketball. Venable was the second.

HR in first AB

2010-04-06T13:51:00.003-05:00

Jason Heyward homered in his first career AB yesterday for the Braves. A sure sign of greatness? Perhaps not. Of the 104 players to homer in their first trip to the plate, only Gary Gaetti and Carlos Lee hit more than 300 lifetime. Only four others -- Jermaine Dye, Will Clark, Tim Wallach and Earl Averill -- surpassed 200. Interestingly, 3 of the last 4 St. Louis Cardinals to do it were pitchers: Mark Worrell in 2008, Adam Wainwright in 2006 and Gene Stechschulte in 2001. Other pitchers I noticed on the list were Guillermo Mota, Dustin Hermanson, Dave Eiland, Jose Sosa, John Montefusco, Hoyt Wilhelm, Dan Bankhead, and Don Rose. I think only Averill and Wilhelm are in the Hall of Fame.

Golly Polly

2010-04-06T11:35:00.002-05:00

Placido Polanco did something yesterday that had not been accomplished since Calvin Pickering pulled it off in 2004. And believe it or not, it was a good accomplishment. Read all about Polanco and the Phils, from Jayson Stark.

Go fourth

2010-04-06T11:01:00.003-05:00

The Tigers outlasted Zack Greinke and took advantage of KC's bullpen for an 8-4 win yesterday. Many bright spots for Detroit, from Scott Sizemore to Austin Jackson to Johnny Damon to Joel Zumaya. Also nice to see the Tigs win a game when giving up 4 runs. Last year, Detroit was 4-7 in such games (a .364 win percentage; the MLB average was .477). If the Tigers went 5-6 a year ago, they would have been in the playoffs.

Grandy goes yard

2010-04-05T08:00:00.001-05:00

Curtis Granderson started the Yankees stage of his career with a home run last night in Boston. This might be a surprise because Granderson came into the game with a .143 BA and 8 Ks in 14 PAs against Red Sox starter Josh Beckett.

But the homer should not have been a surprise because Granderson loves the first week of April and/or not wasting time to get his first dinger.

Last year, in the Tigers' first game of the season, Granderson went yard vs. Roy Halladay. In both 2007 and 2006, he homered in Detroit's second game of the campaign. In 2008, Granderson was hurt at the beginning of the season and didn't make his debut until April 23. He homered on April 24. In 2005, Granderson got called up from the minors on July 22. He homered on July 23.

So excluding the 9 games Granderson played in the bigs in 2004, he has never gone more than two games without a homer to begin his season.

Day and night

2010-04-04T20:57:00.002-05:00

The Tigers start the season in KC and it is no easy task in Monday's opener. Detroit faces reigning Cy Young Award winner Zack Greinke. Of course, the Tigs send Justin Verlander, who was third in the Cy Young vote, to the mound. As Royals skipper Trey Hillman said, "I'm sure that the national media will be focused on other games than the Kansas City Royals and the Detroit Tigers, but I'm not sure you can come up with any better Opening Day matchup than Greinke versus Verlander. It's going to be exciting."

Greinke was 3-1 with an ERA of 1.00 last year against Detroit. He is 11-5 in his career against the Tigers.

Verlander faced KC three times and limited the Royals to a .597 OPS. He was 2-1 with a 1.89 ERA. Lifetime he is 9-2 with a 2.32 ERA vs. KC.

Here was something I thought was odd: Verlander was 8-3 with a 2.23 ERA in day games last year, compared to 11-6 with a 4.22 ERA in night games. His BABIP in day games was .251 and at night was .366. That's a big difference, so he was a little lucky in daytime and unlucky at night, perhaps? In his career, he is 25-11 with a 3.28 ERA in daylight and 40-32 with a 4.26 ERA under the lights. The BABIP split is .270/.316. Wonder if it has something to do with shadows, even though his strikeout rate is a little lower in the daytime.

Greinke's ERA last year was 3.39 in day games and 1.74 at night. His strikeout and walk rates were virtually identical in each. The example for Greinke is a small sample. Verlander, though, seems to have had this odd split throughout his career.

Mike Cuellar passes away

2010-04-03T21:04:00.002-05:00

I was too young to appreciate Mike Cuellar in his prime, but I loved having him on my APBA team.

April show-ers

2010-04-03T20:23:00.002-05:00

The Tigers have got to show up strong in April. Detroit opens the season with 9 games total against KC and Cleveland (6 at Comerica) before going on an 11-game, 11-day road trip to Seattle, Los Angeles and Texas. Then the Tigs return home for 3 against Minnesota and 3 against the Angeles (that spill into May). Then it's 3 at the Twins.

So, after getting two days off in their first 9 games, Detroit plays 20 straight days, with 14 on the road. The Tigers then get an off day and then go 17 in a row against Cleveland, the Yankees, Boston, White Sox, Oakland and Dodgers. Cleveland, Oakland and LA are on the road.

The Tigers have got to take advantage of KC and Cleveland right off the bat. After those 9 games, Detroit does not play a team with a 2009 losing record until seeing Cleveland again on May 7. In fact, of the Tigs' next 39 games after the KC-Cleveland opening stretch, 32 are against teams with winning records from last year.

If Detroit fails to start quickly, it could -- as Yogi observed -- get late early.

WRT to Mark Reynolds offensive production, should I?
	STFU
	Make snide observations, he's a rally killer
	Complain about his fielding, he's a rally starter there
	Present

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